rivering the nuts vs an overbet turn OOP

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rivering the nuts vs an overbet turn OOP

Blinds: $1.00/$2.00 (6 Players) BN: $206.00
SB: $490.92
BB: $285.08 (Hero)
UTG: $209.71
MP: $627.07
CO: $203.00
Preflop ($3.00) Hero is BB with 2 A
UTG folds, MP raises to $4.36, 3 folds, Hero calls $2.36
Flop ($9.72) 6 3 A
Hero checks, MP bets $6.28, Hero calls $6.28
Turn ($22.28) 6 3 A Q
Hero checks, MP bets $42.00, Hero calls $42.00
River ($106.28) 6 3 A Q 7
Hero
232$ effective stacksize

Villain is a very solid, winning regular who is tough to play against with all the regular stats you would expect.

We have history with 'exploiting' each other in some leveling spots but no like tilty-he-is-after-me-and-wants-to-own-me-in-every-spot kind of history.

As a note I have that his overbets on the turn are picked up combodraws; so I've see him overbet turn and I think he is or tries to be close to what PIO would suggest overbetting.. basically a merged range vs capped ranges OOP

OTF I definitely feel raising and calling is fine

OTT easy call

OTR I feel this is a clear check on the one hand with the logic that we protect our c/c range, he might bluff some busted stuff, every value hand bets again!?...

On the other hand our range is uuuuusually pretty defined and I feel that in his shoes he is either beat by what we have or K hi combodraws
OR
we pretty clearly fold most of the time...
so I "feared" that he might make like very tightish check behinds (AA, QQ, AQ, 66, 33) but he would definitely spite-call a donk of some sort....

well, your thoughts!?

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