River sizing for value against nits

Posted by

Posted by posted in Low Stakes

River sizing for value against nits

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (9 Players) BN: $26.68
SB: $26.25
BB: $27.27
UTG: $64.92
UTG+1: $25.00
MP: $13.15
MP+1: $25.35
MP+2: $25.00
CO: $38.10 (Hero)
He has somewhat higher F3b after decent sample.. And higher FCB as well, so dont mind getting called
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is CO with A 3
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $0.62, 3 folds, Hero raises to $2.00, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $1.38
I 3bet this combo only if I have a read to do so.
Flop ($4.35) 3 3 9
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1.37, UTG+1 calls $1.37
Turn ($7.09) 3 3 9 4
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $4.75, UTG+1 calls $4.75
Maybe now I could go slightly bigger since TT-QQ are calling pretty inelastically and AJs,AQs,AK are prob folding. Potentially going 30-40% to get called by AJ,AQ,AK - hands which are drawing dead.
River ($16.59) 3 3 9 4 Q
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets
Okay, lets analyze it against a nitty player profile who is capable of making big river folds and is just tight by nature.
We probably have got 12 combos of TT-JJ, AcQc,KcQc and sometimes KK-AA. Thats the range we wanna focus on (I mean 99,QQ are coolering us and AcKc,AcJc are just folding to any sizing). So it seems like our main target are his pocket pairs, because it makes 12 combos from maybe like 16-18combos which we are targeting.

I would say sth like 20-33% of the pot.. on the other hand, if he is a nit, isnt he folding pretty inelastically vs any sizing those pairs?

Loading 4 Comments...

Be the first to add a comment

You must upgrade your account to leave a comment.

This thread has been locked. No further comments can be added.

Runitonce.com uses cookies to give you the best experience. Learn more about our Cookie Policy