Removal effects on the river

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Removal effects on the river

Hello, I was thinking about a spot on the river in 3bet pot BB vs BTN, where the board looks like K83r39 and we value bet the river with AK+

We have 23 value combos (6 AA, 12 AK, 3 88, 2 A3s, let's say we check KK OTF). Now, when we value bet the river (PSB) we might think we should add 1/3 bluffs, about 12 bluff combos, but it is true that if villain calls with top pair or better, most of his hands will be top pairs, so the calling frequency will not be the same: it will be lower when we are valuebetting and higher when we are bluffing. So in fact we should add less bluffs, right?

How does this affect the real frequency of our value bets and how can we calculate it in an exact way (let's say he call with Kx for simplicity purposes) in this spot and in general?

Thanks!

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