50nl - QQ - hero XCdown?

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

50nl - QQ - hero XCdown?

Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players) BN: $50.00
SB: $50.88
BB: $52.17 (Hero)
UTG: $50.00
MP: $50.00
CO: $72.71
vs 25/20 (55)
AFq 62/57/60
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is BB with Q Q
2 folds, CO raises to $1.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $5.00, CO calls $3.75
Flop ($10.25) 8 8 K
Hero checks, CO bets $5.00, Hero calls $5.00
Typically, I'd probably XC one and fold most turns, but I felt like this player is capable of turning a hand like 66-77/99-TT into a bluff.

As for my perceived range - QQ-JJ/small Kxs. I also block KQ, AK 4bets pre, so there aren't that many hands that beat me.
Turn ($20.25) 8 8 K 7
Hero checks, CO bets $10.00, Hero calls $10.00
I think it doesn't really make a difference if I have QQ or K2s here - they both block the same amount of combos, so I'm XC down, as planned.
River ($40.25) 8 8 K 7 4
Hero checks, CO bets $52.71 and is all in, Hero calls $32.17 and is all in
Not the greatest card, but I think it's still one that he'll shove almost always given my capped range and his aggression.

________________________
I need ~31% to make the call:

Board: 8h8cKd7c4c

Range 1: TT-99,77-66,AQs,A8s,KQs,J9s,T9s,98s,87s,AQo,KQo,AcJc,AcTc,Ac9c,QcJc,QcTc,JcTc,[50]65s[/50]
Range 2: QsQd

Equity 1: 45.614% Win 1: 45.614% Tie 1: 0.000%
Equity 2: 54.386% Win 2: 54.386% Tie 2: 0.000%
Final Pot BB lost and shows two pairs, Queens and Eights.
CO wins and shows a full house, Sevens full of Eights.
CO wins $101.59
Rake is $3.00
I'm not hiding the results to show that if he shows up with a hand like 77 here, I also believe he's doing that with all those mid pairs. Is my logic ok here or just an unnecessary hero calldown? Thanks.

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