Overpair on connected runout

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Overpair on connected runout

BN: chirpybrox7: $217
SB: Gombrowicz2: $433.99
BB: Hero: $378.35
UTG: Iwantbearich: $305.88
HJ: aceskillmeee: $911.49
CO: 5BetAny2: $200
Preflop ($3.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt K K
Iwantbearich raises to $6, aceskillmeee folds, 5BetAny2 folds, chirpybrox7 folds, Gombrowicz2 folds, Hero raises to $20, Iwantbearich calls $14
I suppose I could 3-bet a little bigger because we're 150 deep. This is my standard sizing.
Flop ($43.00) 8 4 9 (2 Players)
Hero bets $26, Iwantbearich calls $26
Since I'm not super experienced in deep stacked play (weird because I'm way better post-flop than pre-flop), I tend to not adjust my c-bet sizing.
In 100BB spots, I usually go 50% - 50% - 75% jam

So bet 30 here?

I think he usually raises 89s if he does call that, so his range should look like 88/99/JTs, QTs, QQ/JJ/TT/, AK, 8x, 9x.
Turn ($95.00) 8 4 9 Q (2 Players)
Hero checks, Iwantbearich bets $64, Hero calls $64
This is where it gets tricky. I tend to get way too paranoid in these spots and forget how strong my hand is.
JT and QQ got there, but I should still have the best pretty often.
Combine that with the fact that I have slightly more Qx in my range, I think this is a bet, right?

So b/x > c/c > c/r ??
River ($223.00) 8 4 9 Q 3 (2 Players)
Hero checks, Iwantbearich bets $195.88, and is all in
And now he jams.
Still losing to the same hands.

I didn't think about it during the hand, but he could definitely turn a hand like TT into a bluff, which I for some reason always get mid-hand.

I'll say that I folded in-game, but I'm not sure. He could value jam AQ here or turn some pairs into bluffs, but I lose to a bunch of hands too.
After my turn check, KK is also near the top of my range, so folding would be exploitable, right?

Thoughts?

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