Nut FD OOP

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Nut FD OOP

Blinds: $0.02/$0.05 (5 Players) BB: $5.88
UTG: $5.06
CO: $5.00 (Hero)
BN: $6.86
SB: $4.66
Preflop ($0.07) Hero is CO with A 6
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.14, BN calls $0.14, 2 folds
Unknown player, it is my first orbit on this table..
Flop ($0.35) 2 2 4
Hero checks, BN bets $0.23, Hero raises to $0.52, BN calls $0.29
checking range on most textures, just for simplification.. this hand falls into the mix category.. I like to raise here and keep barreling on scare turns to fold out his pocket pairs
Turn ($1.39) 2 2 4 3
Hero bets $1.52, BN calls $1.52
tbh, I was not sure at the game how to approach this spot.. I probably like more checking, because we have a lot of draws in our range with non-showdown value - these hands are better candidates for bluffing.
River ($4.43) 2 2 4 3 A
Hero
well and now it gets even more blurry.. okay lets think of his range... 22-TT (not all the time 22,33,44,88-TT and sometimes JJ). XcXc, Ad2d,Ad4d,Ah5h and sometimes hands like AhJh. Okay so based on his range.. I think we barely have a value bet unless he is a player who really likes to call down with pocket pairs.. I mean he has to call with some of them, but 22-55 are dominating us as well as his Axs.. so I think even the theory guys will realize that they do not need to call all of their pocket pairs which means that we do not have a value bet.
So therefore we should check and decide whether we wanna x/c or x/f this hand.. having around 64% of the pot behind. Okay so lets look at his value:bluffing ratio.. here is the fact that he does have many combos of value hands 22-55=12 + Ad2d,Ad4d,Ad5d,6h5h = 16 combos (yeah he does not have them with 100% frequency, but still lets say that 13-14 combos he will find. So in order to make a profitable call we need to find at least 6 bluffs in his range... Well the question is that with how many XcXc hands he will get to the river and what % of them is he willing to bluff. And to be honest I am pretty stucked at this point and have no idea.. my main data point would be probably the population tendencies, such as passivity on the river when it comes to bluffing.. so based on that I would find a fold

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