BTN is only stealing 26% from BTN over 50 chances somehow so I'm just calling QTs. Going to guess he's actually more like 30-35% and a little card dead since how could anyone actually only open 26% from BTN in 2014 but I think it's safe to assume he's tighter than most. I'm guessing I want to 3bet QQ+ AK AQs A5-A2s K8s Q9s T8s 97s 86s 76s 65s or something here.

So this is an amazing flop for our hand but a terrible flop for our range vs his range and it's a flop I really don't understand. What hand is he meant to make us indifferent to calling with on this flop if the board bricks out? AT? I feel like I should fold like 70% or something to a cbet here, but am I meant to assume that he's bluffing wide enough that I still call down with close to 1-A even when he has such a large range advantage as he does on this board?

So I assume this is all pretty much mandatory given that he has a billion 3-street value combos and so he should have a billion bluff combos as well. My next question though is how wide is he meant to call the river jam? I think this is a really complicated question. Like let's say I have QJ here and am planning to call flop, call turn, and x/rai on a brick river. He doesn't have to make the x/rai breakeven because I lose to all his one and two street value hands a huge amount of the time without ever getting the x/r opportunity.

So if I'm x/rai with QJ here he can fold enough that it's easily profitable for me because I lose money getting to this point of the hand with QJ. So the bluff combos he cares about are probably only AQ? But AQ is only going to be a bluff jam if it's more profitable than calling the river, and if AQ can't profitably call the river here he's just like, never ever ever getting called on three streets (like my calling range would be KJ, AJ, or JJ, all of which I could easily have 3bet preflop), and he probably doesn't even expect me to have AQ on the river here.

He ended up calling with KKK which just seems AWFUL. There should be no way that KKK gets stacked here when I have like, two hands which can call a river bet, no hands which could have gotten here to want to bluff, and probably 16 combos of QT. So I think his play is awful but I'm wondering what should have changed if anything. I feel like he's probably meant to be able to play with good enough frequencies that I just don't get to x/rai often enough on the river for it to be profitable with any hand in my range other than QT and then he's meant to just fold everything except his own QT when I jam.