http://weaktight.com/6275227

Villain is 20/16 with an UTG open of 15%. Flop cbet 56%, turn cbet 48%. WWSF 45%

Given the texture of this board I think villain cbets TPGK, overpairs, sets, and flush draws. Specifically, 44, 88, JJ, AJ, QQ+, and Axss+ 

So when villain checks back I think it's a naked AK/AQ/99-TT (or even weaker pairs) a lot.

When I donk the turn, he probably has something like a weak pair, maybe with a FD, or 2 overcards with a high FD.

On this river, I beat AQ and chop with AK. I think a bet here will easily get those hands to fold, which is good. The problem is I think if I bet a normal 2/3 pot sized bet he can snap me off with 99-TT and put me on busted spades often.

So for that reason I am targeting folding 99-TT here. Would you overbet? And if so, how many times the pot? I ended up going for 2x pot bet.

Thoughts?