http://weaktight.com/6258024

This HH isn't really a question I just wanted to know if my math here for calculating my EV is correct.

Villain is 22/18/6.9 with F3B 73%

I don't have many reads on him because we haven't played many pots together. I only have a few hundred hands on him.

I know on the surface this just looks like a bet/bet/jam spot. But I'm wondering what he can possibly call me with on the river often enough to make jamming +EV. So I decided to do the math.

99-JJ either fold to the turn or are now definitely folding OTR. Maybe an AQs/KQs that peeled the flop with BDFD+overcards. 98cc made a pair but isn't calling this river bet and might have possibly semi-bluff raised the turn.

So I think his range for calling a river shove is only AQs (2 combos if we exclude AQhh since no hearts), half slowplayed AA (3 combos), slowplayed KK (1 combo), KQdd (1 combo), and flopped sets 66/77 if we discount 22 (6 combos).

Combos that call a river shove:
Combos we beat: 3 (AQs, KQs)
Combos we chop: 1 (KK)
Combos beat us: 9 (AA, 66, 77)
Equity vs. this range: 26.9%

Combos that just fold: 6 (half combos of TT/JJ that didn't believe us on the turn)
Fold equity: 6/19 = 31.6%

River bet: $26.45 to win pot of $47.35. Pot is $100.25 when villain calls. Pot is $73.80 when villain folds.
Equity when called = $100.25*26.9%*(100-31.6%) = $18.45
Villain folds = $73.80*31.6% = $23.32
Total equity = $41.77
Net EV on river jam = +$15.32