NL50 Considering a hero call with 3rd pair
Posted by bdon22
Posted by bdon22 posted in Low Stakes
NL50 Considering a hero call with 3rd pair
CO is 22/11 over a small sample. BB is 38/10 over a small sample. I decide to flat rather than 3-bet to keep BB in the pot. Both players seem weak and I think AJs is a great hand to flat in this spot.
Flop: I considered going for a CR since I think BB's 1/2 donk bet could be a pair of Jacks or worse, or a draw, and if CO had a strong hand he would raise, given how wet the board is, and to shut me out of the pot. Lots of bad turn cards for me, so in hindsight, I think CR'ing the flop would be best here.
Turn: Picked up a gutshot, but the K helps our opponent's range more than it helps ours. KT just picked up TP with their OESD. T9 just made a straight. And we're losing to KJ now. I am expecting 2-pair+ to now bet this turn given how wet the board is.
River: Pretty much a blank, the club draws missed. BB, the original donk better, bets 7/10 pot. I don't think a Q or J would bet this river for value. The K is a scare card and they have good SD value vs. a busted draw. BB's line of donk bet flop, check turn, and then bet river is consistent with KT and busted clubs a lot.
I need to win 29% here. Call?
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