NL50 combo flush draw with 54s 120bb deep, turn decision
Posted by holopainen
Posted by holopainen posted in Low Stakes
NL50 combo flush draw with 54s 120bb deep, turn decision
BB: $57.29
UTG: $51.50
HJ: $59.39
CO: $50
BN: $60.27 (Hero)
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $1, SB calls $0.75, BB calls $0.50
Villain is 27/19, 3bets 14% sb vs btn. His raise cbet oop is 15%. We are slightly deep (120 bb) but I have no idea how that changes his 3bet range. He might add more of the suited broadways into his calling range, or might 3bet them more. Important to note, that BB is a passive-ish reg, who squeezes only 1.7%, so that enables villain to call wider, so I definitely include 44 in his range as well.
Villain generally respects me, but he views me probably as a relatively aggro, bit stationy reg, but I'm not sure of this of course.
I have two notes on him:
1. he donked flop with TPWK in a BB vs BTN situation.
2. gives up on river after a c/r bluff on flop and turn barrel.
I'm not sure about either streets. We might be happier if we don't see a spade. It could also be better to get it in on the flop, but I elected to call.
If I construct his range as following, then we have a plus EV shove on the turn:
[b]Board: [/b]8:spade:Q:spade:4:diamond: 2:heart:
[b] Equity Win Tie[/b]
[b]MP2 [/b] 47.73% 47.73% 0.00% { 5s4s }
[b]MP3 [/b] 52.27% 52.27% 0.00% { 88, 4h4c, AsTs, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, As3s, As2s }
Of course if we add AQo and AQs, our equity is much worse on the turn:
[b]Board: [/b]8:spade:Q:spade:4:diamond: 2:heart:[b] Equity Win Tie[/b][b]MP2 [/b] 38.74% 38.74% 0.00% { 5s4s }[b]MP3 [/b] 61.26% 61.26% 0.00% { 88, 4h4c, AQs, AsTs, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, As3s, As2s, AQo }
And we don't have the 41.4% needed.But I really don't think he plays AQ this way, it's possible though. If he can have AQ in his turn bet range, then it's a clear fold. I don't include pure bluffs in his range at all, because I don't think he has any. I also don't think that he folds anything after that turn bet size. The turn bet size really worries me, it definitely looks like a setup to a well sized river jam, which me made think his range is more weighted towards sets and A3s which is terrible for me.
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