NL25z to value shove river or not to value shove?

Posted by

Posted by posted in Low Stakes

NL25z to value shove river or not to value shove?

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) BN: $70.93
SB: $24.53
BB: $35.90 (Hero)
UTG: $20.00
MP: $25.00
CO: $22.43
No reads 19 hands 26/26 with 100/100/100 cbet by street (3,2 and 1 hand respectively)
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is BB with 5 5
2 folds, CO raises to $0.75, BN calls $0.75, SB folds, Hero calls $0.50
Flop ($2.35) K 5 Q
Hero checks, CO bets $1.00, BN folds, Hero calls $1.00
Turn ($4.35) K 5 Q 3
Hero checks, CO bets $2.25, Hero calls $2.25
River ($8.85) K 5 Q 3 A
Hero checks, CO bets $4.25, Hero raises to $19.00, CO calls $14.18 and is all in

In play I weighted his range more towards a two pair type hand due to his bet sizing, AK, AQ, KQ.

Thinking his sets/straight combos would be value betting bigger. So figured I had a clear shove for value against his two pair hands which will likely call me off.

Had a look at the hand using Pokerstove and if I give him a range of QQ+,33, AQ+, KQ, J10. I have 55% equity so I can shove profitably however this assumes he is calling off with everything.

If he folds the bottom of his value range aka KQ I only have 45% equity so no shove. And if we can take out his nut outs due to sizing (I think most players who are double barreling J10 here will use a bigger sizing when they hit the river so hard?) as well as KQ we jump up to 70%

Loading 1 Comments...

Be the first to add a comment

You must upgrade your account to leave a comment.

This thread has been locked. No further comments can be added.

Runitonce.com uses cookies to give you the best experience. Learn more about our Cookie Policy