NL25 - Should the turn favour us? Epic confusion inside
Posted by forCarlotta
Posted by forCarlotta posted in Low Stakes
NL25 - Should the turn favour us? Epic confusion inside
MP: $27.43 (Hero)
CO: $5.93
BN: $17.00
SB: $26.38
BB: $23.20
I don't usually 3bet ATs from MP, even to isolate the fish, but this time was different. Cannot recall why I 3bet exactly because this hand is 5 days old.
Villain seems like a somewhat passive fish, playing 41/18 over 20 hands.
Flop: I think the flop is ok, I chose the half pot bet instead of the 1/3 to put a little more pressure on marginal hands like 99 and AJ,AQ.
Turn: I think this card should be better for our range than his. Also, is kinda strange to raise with AQ.
His range could be: 66,33,KQ and bluffs which can't exclude.
When villain raises we have 25% pot odds, out hand against a range of sets and KQ has 23% equity.
So our call should be close to BE even if we don't get more money OTR.
Let's say he bluff sometimes, even rarely, is a shove good?
If we shove and he folds we gain a lot of dead money and if he calls we have a lot of equity.
Instead if we call the turn and just hope to improve, don't we end up folding too much?
As I'm writing this I'm getting even more confused
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