NL200 River spot

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

NL200 River spot

UTG2: $75.09
LJ: $83.96
HJ: $308.37 (Hero)
CO: $200
BN: $80
SB: $356.59
BB: $309.09
UTG: $206
UTG1: $94.10
Preflop ($3.00) (9 Players)
Hero was dealt K A
UTG folds, UTG1 folds, UTG2 folds, LJ folds, Hero raises to $6, CO calls $6, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds
Flop ($15.00) 4 3 3 (2 Players)
Hero bets $8, CO calls $8
Turn ($31.00) 4 3 3 K (2 Players)
Hero bets $20, CO calls $20
River ($71.00) 4 3 3 K 6 (2 Players)
Hero bets $52, CO raises to $166, and is all in

FR

Villain is a good reg playing 21/17. Don't have any particular reads on him. Just one relevant hand where he caught me 3 barrel bluffing him.

On the river it costs us 114 to win 403. So getting pretty good odds.  This is is pretty close to the top of my range plus he really doesn't have many value combos. I mean I hardly see him having any threes becides quads. So it's like 44 and maybe an unlikely stuborn 66. Draw back is I just don't see many players at these stakes bluffing like this. Can we call here?


Edit: thinking about the read that he caught me emptying the clip with air can we then assume that he is thinking that I may be weak but he himself doesnt have much maybe a missed flush draw that he is now turning into a bluff since he has no SD value? Is this reasonable to think or are we over analyzing?




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