this hand took place not long after i sat down.

if villain is something of a TAG, then his range for calling me on the flop is probably something like 44-99 [36 comb.]; ATs,KTs,JTs,T9s [12 comb.]; 76cc,87cc,98cc [3 comb.]; AQcc,AJcc [2 comb.]; possibly some random A2cc-A5cc combinations [2 comb.] ...

.. thats a total of 56 combinations --

8 FDs

12 TPs

36 PPs.

i think the turn is a mandatory bet for my hand? i dont feel like im going to get check-raise-bluffed often enough that ill be giving up significant equity by being forced to fold a hand that will likely to be drawing dead.

what calls me again on the turn? i guess it would be some percentage of the made flushes. [ill assume villain check-raises turn 2/8 times, so that leaves 6 combs.] then the rest is probably stubborn TP hands [~8 combs. (?)], and pocket pair hands that contain one club [18 combs.].

thats 32 combinations. if i bet on the river, id probably be betting ~16 .. so the bluff would have to work about 39% of the time. 0.39*32 = 12, so id have to get villain to fold at least 12 combinations of hands. is that reasonable? i think so ..