NL100, river vs capped range, overbetting?

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NL100, river vs capped range, overbetting?

Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (6 Players) UTG: $90.05
MP: $123.88
CO: $113.95
BN: $38.50
SB: $265.39
BB: $112.00 (Hero)
Preflop ($1.50) Hero is BB with J T
2 folds, CO raises to $2.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.50
Flop ($5.50) Q 9 5
Hero checks, CO checks
Turn ($5.50) Q 9 5 A
Hero checks, CO bets $3.44, Hero raises to $11.91, CO calls $8.47
River ($29.32) Q 9 5 A 4
Hero bets $19.46, CO folds
Final Pot BB wins $27.81
Rake is $1.51

So I think Villan is fairly capped, QQ and occasional flushes will be really the top of his range in my mind.

We can play all nuts this way basicly, so does make it sense to overbet this combo and some nutted flushes? Also, given SPR is so large here, I would have no idea how to size that overbet. I guess it mainly depends on my frequencies, not sure though if I should pick a size and then frequencies or the other way round...

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