NL100 AxKh on 4Q8 monoflop SBvsBU 3bp

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NL100 AxKh on 4Q8 monoflop SBvsBU 3bp

Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (6 Players) MP: $100.00
CO: $497.80
BN: $100.00
SB: $107.77 (Hero)
BB: $117.29
UTG: $100.00
Preflop ($1.50) Hero is SB with A K
2 folds, BN raises to $2.50, Hero raises to $9.00, UTG folds, BN calls $6.50
Lag reg
Flop ($19.00) 4 Q 8
Hero checks, BN bets $10.02, Hero calls $10.02
I like xc here because I have sdv and like to protect my checking range
Turn ($39.04) 4 Q 8 J
Hero checks, BN bets $19.00, Hero calls $19.00
River ($77.04) 4 Q 8 J 2
Hero checks, BN bets $61.98 and is all in, Hero calls $61.98
Calling might be too loose on the river
Final Pot BN wins and shows a straight flush, Queen high.
SB lost and shows a flush, King high.
BN wins $198.00
Rake is $3.00

It's probably a fold OTR. I expect BU to have all Axhh(7), AhTo-AhJo(8) and probably some AhQo & weaker Ahxo. So that's at least 15 value combo's. I need at least 44.6% equity to call on the river, right?

How many bluff combo's does he need to have on the river to make this a call?
Can we expect an unknown lag regular to bluff often enough?

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