NL10 - After mangling this, can I fold?
Posted by Sean Fri
Posted by
Sean Fri
posted in
Low Stakes
NL10 - After mangling this, can I fold?
UTG: $10.34
HJ: $14
CO: $13.79
BN: $17.48
SB: $12.26 (Hero)
BB: $10.85
HJ: $14
CO: $13.79
BN: $17.48
SB: $12.26 (Hero)
BB: $10.85
The gentleman on the BTN is 18/16/7 global over about 850 hands. From the BTN, he's 31/26/2. He cbets flop 83%, calls donkbet on flop 1 of 5, so not a huge sample. WSD 31, W$SD 40. I have made hero calls against him and been right, and since then, he doesn't mess around too much.
Preflop
($0.15)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
5
5
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20
Deep enough to trip mine, even heads up, so no other play, imo.
Flop
($0.90)
K
7
5
(3 Players)
Hero checks,
BB checks,
BN checks
With his high cbet number, I go for a check-raise, he doesn't oblige.
Turn
($0.90)
7
(3 Players)
Hero bets $0.67,
BB folds,
BN calls $0.67
perfect - although I think he would have cbet the flop with a FD, if he's got a flush now I'm happy. If he somehow had 7x in his opening range, I'm pretty happy, except that some rivers might kill my action if he has 7x without a heart. In fact, there's only one card I don't want to see on the river, and it's.....
River
($2.24)
7
(2 Players)
Hero bets $1.49,
BN raises to $4
He's bluff bet the river before, but when he bluffs it's usually pot or over. Here I need him to be bluffing/ value betting worse 25% of the time to make the call. But 7x just pulled ahead, as did TT-QQ, which make some sense, but not much (if he was scared of a K on the flop, wouldn't he still be?)
Can I ever fold here?
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