First of all, let me say that if this topic has been addressed somewhere else in the forums or in a pro video, feel free to just direct me there. I'm relatively new to RIO and don't yet have an encyclopedic knowledge of the forums/pro videos (though I hope to soon).

You are on the turn in a 3B pot as the PFC with a marginal strength hand (this hand is fabricated, but certainly representative of a common spot). Lets say you opened AQo (no clubs) in the CO and get 3B by the BB 100bb effective and decide to flat. The BB is an unknown playing full stacked and you have no reason yet to believe he is bad aggressive or bad passive. The board comes Qc Tc 5x and you decide to call a half pot cbet. While the crux of my question lies on the turn, I'm open to alternative lines anywhere along the hand (raising to induce shoves from the NFD is possible). The turn brings 8x and he bets again about half pot to set up a river shove. We have the option of jamming now or playing call-call. How often does villain have to bluff his missed FDs/SDs on the river to incline us to call rather than jam?

If we jam this turn, while it is plausible we get called by between two and eight combos of KQ, we will mostly run into 9 combos of AA/KK, 3 combos of TT and between zero and four combos of J9s that decided to 3B bluff pre. Our main objective with shoving then would be to fold out his equity with FDs or to get value from 87cc/65cc that turned or flopped a pair+draw. If villain never bluffs the river when we call and he misses, then clearly a turn shove is better. If he always bluffs the river, then presumably calling the turn is better (?). There is a lot of uncertainty in this hand as we don't know if he is 3B bluffing SC like 76s and then repping a flush on the river or whether he even takes this line with KQ. My gut tells me that in the games I play in (200nl/400nl on BROvada) the average villain will not bluff enough to justify the turn flat. I would love to hear the communities thoughts regarding the math of analyzing this spot.

Thanks!