$2/$5 Live

Background, UTG,UTG+1 Terrible, last orbit UTG player cold called squeeze from BB with K2o then led flop on 872, took down the pot, showed and said "I couldn't put him on that board". UTG+1 Had a fair few beers and was just here for the long weekend, playing very straight forward, aiming to see every flop. I noticed MP1 for first time last week and has been there 3/5 days, seems competent, no hands together as yet. My image is very good, I've been sat about 4 hours, binked a set in a squeezed pot and won a few small hands, then been card dead for quite a while, currently at $1400, MP1 has around $900 to start the hand.

UTG Limps $5
UTG+1 Limps $5
UTG+2 Fold
MP1 (Villain) Limps $5
MP2 Fold
BTN Squeeze $30 (AhJc)
SB fold
BB Fold

UTG Call $30
UTG+1 Call $30
MP1 Call $30

Flop 8h6h9d ($127)

UTG Check
UTG+1 Check
MP1 Bets $60
BTN Raises $210
UTG Fold
UTG+1 Fold
MP1 Tanks for around a minute, not looking thrilled with the situation, and calls.

Turn 8h6h9d 2h ($547)

MP1 Checks
BTN Bets $350
MP1 Thinks for around 3 minutes, almost goes to muck a few times, then (almost reluctantly) sticks it all in for $655
BTN Calls $305

River ($1857)

Thoughts:

Obviously not thrilled with the turn shove but getting the correct odds against the inevitable set I had to flick it in.

Pre; no comments really, happy with size and squeeze. Could be argued slightly more, but wouldn't have gone bigger than $35 regardless, i'd rather keep more of UTG+1, UTG+2's hands in the pot with the way they've been playing.

Flop lead seems rather small for a set at this stack depth, villain is definitely thinking enough to know this range favours theirs, and with the other two checking after previously leading out when they've caught any piece, it seems a good spot for villain to bet.

She certainly isn't ever pure bluffing here though, the range I've assigned villain is

99-66,98s,86s,76s,8s7, T7ss, As9s,T9s, some % of 54ss also

I think this seems fine for villains limp, call, half pot stab range, villain is definitely never limping over pairs after the two fish have limped, and underpairs aren't betting here. I'd probably give villain ¼ of JTs also but i'm pretty sure she squeezes that anyhow, and QJ she certainly does.

My raising range this deep i've got as

99-77,AdAh,AhAs,AhAc,AhKh,AhQh,AhJh,AhTh,Tc7c,AhJc,AhTd,AhTs,AhTc,QJss, JTss

I still definitely have sets, and combo draws, i'd mix in some Jtss,QTss semi bluffs as well as raise AhAx and a number of nut flush draws I'd have here. I don't see myself getting raised all too often here and my range has plenty of great barrelling turns. Let me know if you think it's too spewy with this exact hand, my gut says this hand should be in our bluffing range some % of the time (but possibly at a greater stack depth). I've also been so quiet for the last couple of hours, and any showdown hands i've had it. I think a fair portion of my continuing range in general in position would play better at this depth as a raise, and I would not be thrilled calling two streets with overpairs. When i'm called here i'm pretty sure villain has a very strong had already.

Turn:

When Villain sees the 2h drop they aren't thrilled, this is obviously a great card for us, and if anything I would see myself and most other regs at this stake under bluffing here the way the hand has played out, I'm expecting to almost never get raised, and I like the sizing $350 into $547 for my exact hand and our range v villains, it looks valuey, allows us to still have bluffs and puts alot of pressure on the sets, with the implication of stacks going in on non pairing rivers, I'm very confident villain has a set at this point, but its a complete bluff catcher against all my value range, and with most of my continuing range priced to call.

For sure in game and now after I'm aware I wouldn’t be balanced in these spots, and don't think in retrospect vs these players that I would need to be, so the flop may be just plain bad. I spoke with a few people after who like the hand and others that are not so keen. I think i'd really like it if we were a bit deeper 250bb+, in position we'd have very good visiblity on all turns as to give up on the hand or barrel. My conclusion is that I think the flop is justified with my image and her ability (i thought) to fold turns, i'm not sure combinatorics wise whether i'm butchering this with overbluffs, but I think it's definitely not terribad deeper, and I like my sizings. Feel free to be as brutal as you like, on the thought process, or any aspect of the hand.

Much appreciated guys!