1/3 game, 500 cap/match the stack. Runs deep.

V is on BTN and is a competent reg, we both know each other are likely the most thinking players at the table. We’ve discussed ranges, poker training websites, both regular viewers of Bart Hanson’s crushlivepoker channel, etc.

1/3 1000 effective

2 limps to H in CO. Raise to 20 w ATo no diamond. BTN 3b to 60. Expecting him to know I’m wide here and raise his 3b frequency against me here more than average.

Folds to H, I call.

$120
7d 5d 2c

Check check.

Kd

H checks. V bets 60. H x/r to 200. V calls.

I think the majority of V’s range here is AK. So I decide to x/r here expecting to get called a high percentage but expecting to get folds from blank rivers from AK with no diamond a very large percentage of the time. V can also have A high flushs he checked the flop with.

$520
Turn is the 2d.

H bets $325

Here I decide to make a pretty reckless gamble on him having AKo w/o the Ad. I believe I get folds from all his besides his nut flushs.

I thought a lot about this hand and how reckless it was after I left the table. Then I got curious and decided to see the math behind. The following is what I came up with and I would appreciate if anyone could see if I am doing this correctly:

According to the break even formula for bluffs we need V to fold:

$325 / 325 + $520 = 38%

of the time to break even on our bluff.

So I went into poker cruncher and assigned his calling range as: AKdd-AJdd, A5dd-A3dd, AKo w/ Ad, AQo w/ Ad

For a total of 18 combos we lose to.

Then I thought about his folding range:

AKo w/o Ad, AQo w/o Ad for a total of 12 combos.

Then I divided 12 by the total number of hands, 30 and got 40%.

So now what at first thought felt like a suicidal bluff now seems slightly above breakeven.

What do you guys think?