Implied Odds Concept, Math Check

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Implied Odds Concept, Math Check

http://weaktight.com/6602513

Villain is l/c everything and obv is a fish
VPIP: 52
PFR: 2
No read so far... 

Assuming he has a FD, we can't shove the river right?
He's getting 2,48:1 odds
On the river he should make (4,22-2,48)*7,50 in order to BE, that's 13,05$
If we shove we are shoving 17.11$ so if he got the flush and I'm shoving I'm losing overall right?

Instead if we bet bigger on the flop and the turn...

Pot on the flop 5,10$
Hero bets 4
Villain calls

Pot on the turn: 13,10$
Hero bets: 10$
Now Villain is getting 2,3:1 odds
In order to BE he should make (4,22-2,31)*750=14,32$
Stack left after Hero bets: 13,61$
So even if we shove Villain strategy is -EV?

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