I'm value betting, still I want him to fold.
Posted by Kinda Close
Posted by Kinda Close posted in Low Stakes
I'm value betting, still I want him to fold.
SB: $48.65
BB: $36.35 (Hero)
UTG: $25.00
MP: $28.73
CO: $25.05
Rake is $1.09
Hi. I think this is the spot we value bet hoping he folds. It's explained " Comparing In Position and Out of Position River Jams." p.329 of "Application of No limit holdem."
His river range: AhAc, KQs, 98s, AhKh, AcKc, AhQh, AcQc, AhJh, AcJc, KhJh, KsJs, KcJc, QhJh, QsJs, QcJc, AhTh, AcTc, Ks9s, Qs9s, Jh9h, Js9s, Jc9c, Ks8s, Qs8s, Jh8h, Js8s, Jc8c, Ah7h, Ac7c, Ks7s, Th7h, Tc7c, Ks6s, 6s5s, 6s4s, 5s4s, Ah3h, KQo, AhKd, AhKs, AhKc, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AhQd, AhQs, AhQc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AhJs, AhJc, AcJh, AcJs, AhTd, AhTc, AcTd, AcTh, KdJh, KdJs, KdJc, KhJs, KhJc, KsJh, KsJc, KcJh, KcJs, QdJh, QdJs, QdJc, QhJs, QhJc, QsJh, QsJc, QcJh, QcJs (93 combos)
If we bet,
His calling or raising range: AhAc, KQs, 98s, AhKh, AcKc, AhQh, AcQc, AhJh, AcJc, AhTh, AcTc, Ah7h, Ac7c, Th7h, Tc7c, Ah3h, KQo, AhKd, AhKs, AhKc, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AhQd, AhQs, AhQc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AhJs, AhJc, AcJh, AcJs, AhTd, AhTc, AcTd, AcTh (54 combos, 58%)
He has to defend 66% vs half pot for which he has to bluff raise which never happens in 25nl.
Those we beat: AhKh, AcKc, AhQh, AcQc, Th7h, Tc7c, AhKd, AhKs, AhKc, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AhQd, AhQs, AhQc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs (18 combos)
EV of betting: 18/9318 - 36/936 + 39/93*12 = 6.19 $
When we check, assuming he makes us indifferent with bluff catcher. And his bet sizing is 8$, then pot odds would be 28%
His value betting range: AhAc, KQs, 98s, AhJh, AcJc, AhTh, AcTc, Ah7h, Ac7c, KQo, AhJs, AhJc, AcJh, AcJs, AhTd, AhTc, AcTd, AcTh (35 combos)
He needs 13 combos of bluff (giving me 27% of pot odds)
EV of checking: 48/930 + 45/9312 = 5.8$
- AT+ seems clear value bet for him, but not sure about A7 and population would bet with it here.
- He has to turn his Jx to make 13 combos of bluff. I presume Jx going to check back though, so I'm more inclined to x/f than x/c if I decided to check.
- We don't give him enough pot odds to justify call with single A. But I hope and assume they call with AK, AQ.
Any comment would be helpful for me. Thanks for reading
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