I d like to hear what you think about this shove. At the time i thought it was a +ev play but now having done some math i changed my mind. I think his value stack-off range is 22,66,77,67,88-JJ.

Our eq. when called is around 30%.

Risk-reward ratio is 3-to-1 on our shove. So pot is 3+3+1=7. Our eq. share is 0.3*7=2.1.

If he calls x% and folds (1-x)% then to find a breakpoint we need to find x from

-x * 0.9 + (1-x)*1 = 0

which gives x = 52.6% for a breakeven play. and 1-x = 47.4%

I don't think he folds 47.4% times he raises. Of course we can't know for sure and he might raise/fold a lot of marginal made hands in this spot. I estimated his value stack-off range to be about 7.51% of his calling 3bet range. So he needs to raise/fold another 6.82%. Do you think it is reasonable to assume he raises 14% total in this spot or more? I think the stronger the player the more i like the shove because he will raise maybe some bd draws and some air/overcards.