How to think about value to bluff ratios when we are OOP and at a range disadvantage.
Posted by sirin
Posted by sirin posted in Mid Stakes
How to think about value to bluff ratios when we are OOP and at a range disadvantage.
I've seen a rule of thumb that on the flop in position we should have roughly 2 bluffs for every value hand. I'm wondering how that changes when we are at the double disadvantage of being out of position and having a weaker range.
I know there's no exact numbers for this, but I'm just wondering roughly how to think about it.
For example, CO opens, we defend BB, flop is Qs9s5c.
I put some fairly reasonable ranges into Flopzilla and it seems that our ranges stack up as follows:
Of his 294 preflop combos, 96 are top pair or better, and 24 are overpairs or better.
Of our 303 preflop combos, 59 are top pair or better, and 17 are ahead of his overpairs.
So clearly this a board we shouldn't be too aggressive on, right?
But lets say we want to raise 99,55, and probably Q9, keeping our worse two pairs, top pairs, and mid pairs as our bluffcatchers. That leaves us with 15 nutty combos. We obviously have a ton of potential bluff combos, it'd be easy to find 30 combos that are to some extent semibluffs. But this seems a bit excessive when he has such a stronger range overall, so I'm wondering roughly how many combos we should be looking to check/raise to balance out our 15 nutty combos?
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