How often do people actually bluff the river and 3 bet light?
Posted by RunItTw1ce
Posted by RunItTw1ce posted in Low Stakes
How often do people actually bluff the river and 3 bet light?
I have been playing 100NL online for a few months now on an app. It is getting some what annoying when I watch videos and certain hands with a blocker are basically mandatory calls because player could be bluffing with XYZ combos. I feel like my game is pretty balanced with value / bluffs, although I do need to value bet a bit more. However, other players games tend to just be that of live poker player fish, where they barely ever bluff, only value bet what they think is a good hand. I am constantly leveling myself thinking 100NL online should have some good players, where I need to be balanced and have some light call downs. Turns out I just need to fold over fold turn and rivers vs them and preflop vs their 3 bets.
The problem I am having is basically what they title says. Players are showing up with random ass hands for value and literally zero bluffs. They get these value bets because of either really nitty ranges or really wide ranges. Hero call after hero call, I am constantly confirming these players just are not bluffing. Then I study and learn certain hands I should be calling with and hear things like long run it makes the most money. Same for 3 bets, I am trying to defend appropriate ranges by time after time I am constantly just shown JJ+ AK as their 3 bet range and very few regs are actually 3 betting light. I am not seeing any A5s, 76s, K9s, 99, type hands. I am calling with AQo, some SCs, medium PP, and some suited broadways vs 3 bets and yet I am just constantly shown AK+ and JJ+. I feel like I should just be folding to 90%+ vs 3 bets.
If I had to guess a lot of these regs are just playing a 20/14/3 style and bum hunting fish. There are no huds on this site or I would really exploit these players. Having a hard time accepting online players are just playing super face up and big bet equals a big hand.
Good news is I am still semi crushing the player pool, I just feel like win rates could be 15-20bb /100 if I just stop paying off the obvious.
Anyone else seeing the same thing I am seeing? Having the same problem? I know Olivier Busquet on Eliot's interview for his A-Game master class talked about over folding rivers because fish are just not bluffing often enough. Problem is I keep projecting my game into their game, so I make these stupid hero calls. I just need to play more face up myself I guess, bluff in spots where players are scared despite not having blockers when the flush comes in. Just be pure exploit based on tendencies instead of constructed ranges.
https://www.runitonce.com/library/modules/OlivierBusquet/extra-material/
I'll probably go back through this interview and listen to it a couple of times until it really sticks in my head that a lot of players are just face up and really suck at poker.
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