Hey guys -

HJ is a yet to be defined player for me most likely a standard regular (which usually doesn't mean ranges are extremely balanced at these stakes). His stats are loose but (45/36/6) over a too tiny sample (40 hands). Basically I'm more interested in the general spot against low stakes regular but also a bit weakish/regular opposition.

I already spent some time breaking down the spot in GTO+ and don't want to reserve those results:

FLOP: HJ is c-betting this board if only given a small sizing with almost range (>85%) and hence we get to do quite some check-raising with about 14%. We're mainly check-raising sets (88, 66) and a decent frequency of our 2pairs (Q8, Q6, 86). We balance this with straight-draws for the most part (54s, 57s, 79s, TJs).

TURN: Was considering leading our 87 turned 2pair here. GTO+ lets us lead 10% of our range here but mostly elects the sets we didn't check-raise and straights for doing so.

Whilst this stuff was mainly just general the part I'm most interested in is the overbetting range of HJ. I suspect overbetting ranges to be very set and flushdraw heavy which plays quite an important role for our river decision in this hand. The original ranges include some more creative overbetting combos like A5 and A9 and even quite some QTs without fd. Flushdraws are highly mixed and only overbetting calmly (maybe 25-35% overall) whilst they choose a smaller size just the other third and checking the remaining third. GTO+ also doesn't take all the sets to the overbet size.

With these ranges 87 remains a pretty clear call to the 80% river bet size. We even go down to calling KQ with flush blockers and some very rare QT.

I've played around with nodelocking but only when nodelocking the overbet turn and river strategy of villain we get to fold 87 which makes us absurdely exploitable because we only call with flushes (we even fold 66 nodelocked like this).

For everyone having it made through this wall of text I'm interested if you think folding 87 is a reasonable exploit vs a low stakes pool facing weaker/solid regular player types.

Strongly appreciate any feedback :)