Opponent unknown!
We were 3handed because the table broke and I was about to leave... but then this hand happened.

For calling my preflop steal I give him this range: TT-22, AJs-A2s, KJs-K7s, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, AJo-ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo

I know this range is tight but people defend their blind really tight at these stakes so I think it is fine!

It's up for debate whether people call with 66-22 or whether they fold it... Also we can't really tell if people 3bet KQ or AJs... some will... but I figured that most people 3bet less than optimal so AJs and KQo may very well be in their flatcallingrange pre.

Flop standard cbet for value only reason I see for checking back flop is if I think that he will stab almost 100% on the turn and follow up with some bluffs on the river too.
Otherwise my strategy is to cbet this board really often because you get a decent amount of folds on this limit.. I'd bet midpairs for protection and bottom pairs I'd bet because they have equity when called and kind of protection.

This leads into a very weak x/back range on this board but since people are not stabbing that often at NL2 at least I have no reason to slowplay. I think If I would slowplay I would choose weak toppairs to do so because I can't bet turn with them anyway if my flopbet is called and it's not bad to play a 2 street game with toppair anyway, keeps the pot kinda small so easy to calldown UNLESS opponent starts overbetting turn if I xback flop but people don't do that at my limit.

That's the range I put him on for calling my flop cbet: TT-66, AJs, A8s, A6s, KJs, K8s, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, AhTh, AsTs, AdTd, 7d6d, 6d5d, 5d4d, 5h4h, AJo, KJo, QTo+, JTo, KhQd, KsQd, KsQh, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs

people don't have much of a raisingrange on this board although some people do in fact raise their sets on the flop but I decided not to discount combos for simplicity!

Ok so in this hand the turn is close between bet/fold or check/back. As u can see my equity also dropped from about 65% to 52% and I am 100% sure that I will be behind against his continuing range if I bet turn.

We have value against JT,77 and also against his floats like AhTh but I don't see much else calling.

I think he can't have many 9x but he certainly can have 66,88,99,KJ,QT,AJ (debatable, I actually think since people don't 3bet that aggro at nl2 it's more in their flatcalling range pre).

The problem too is that he can decide to semibluff his backdoorhearts or his picked up OESDs and I'd b/f so that would be really desastrous.
So that's why I checked back the Turn.

On the Riv this is a very clear vbet against some random twopair maybe herocalling Toppair or maybe 77.
So my betsizing shouldn't be big because I want to target the weaker part of his range. Vs 77 I obviously could go bigger.

But he decides to raise me and now I am in a quite difficult spot.
What if he expects me to double barrel all Backdoorheartcombos?

-------> that could lead into him thinking that I never have a flush on the river as played SO he could definately play this line with Qx to get me off the split.

But ok in the hand I thought he would NOT play this line as a bluff and I would not think he would raise 7x so big so like the worst hand he could have is Qx so I am calling for a split.

But then he can have flushes like Ah8h, AhTh, Qh8h, Kh8h

Ok so that's what equilab says:

de.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 8d6hJs9hTh
Equity Win Tie
MP2 75.00% 50.00% 25.00% { KQs, Q9s+, AhJh, KhJh, AhTh, JhTh, Jh9h, Th9h, Ah8h, Kh8h, Qh8h, Jh8h, Th8h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 8h7h, Ah6h, 7h6h, 6h5h, 5h4h, KQo, QTo+ }
MP3 25.00% 0.00% 25.00% { QdJh }

I gave him all Qx but that is kinda unrealistic I think It is more realtistic if I give him about 1/3 of Qx

de.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 8d6hJs9hTh
Equity Win Tie
MP2 88.64% 77.27% 11.36% { KQs, Q9s+, AhJh, KhJh, AhTh, JhTh, Jh9h, Th9h, Ah8h, Kh8h, Qh8h, Jh8h, Th8h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 8h7h, Ah6h, 7h6h, 6h5h, 5h4h, KQo }
MP3 11.36% 0.00% 11.36% { QdJh }

By the way how much equity do I need to breakeven? I need to pay 58c to win 1,11$ but since I only win half the pot because I think at best I am splitting here I pay 58c to win 84c (1,11$+0,58$/2) which gives me pot odds of 1,44:1 so I need about 41% equity to breakeven.

So this is never a call right?
Do you guys agree?