Facing River Lead while holding boat

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Facing River Lead while holding boat

1-3

1 limp
Hero raise KK to $18
5 call

Flop AAKr
Pot $102
Hero cbet $25
SB call, covers hero who is 100bb eff
and Bb call($55 behind after call)

Turn 8o
Pot $177

SB checks covering
Bb. Checks w $55

Hero bets $80
SB call
Bb call last $55

Riv Jo
Pot $390
Bb flips over revealing QJ before anyone acts
SB leads $170
Hero has $175 behind

Basically, we need villain to be leading here with a hand like AQ at some non zero frequency. There is 2 AK, 4 AJ, and then between 2-8 A8 combos depending on if this guy calls A8o pre. I imagine we can count like 3 combos. That makes between 9-14 hands that beat us. Let’s say 11. We are getting a little better that 1:4, so there needs to be 2.5-3.5 worst hands that can value own themselves. It’s obviously a big mistake for a hand like AQ or AT to lead here, but I’m concerned that this does happen at a non zero rate. I’m thinking tho we can only account for maybe 1-2 combos of AQ, and the. Maybe like .5 combos of 88. It’s gonna blow if he is getting way outta wack with something like A9, but realistically that’s probably pretty rare. I’m thinking I should just fold this hand. Any thoughts on this?

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