EV on excel

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EV on excel

Hi! Hope you're doing well

I'm trying to understand how EV works with a simple example: Bluffcatcher vs nuts/air

So the pot is 1, we bet 0.33 We have 50 value hands et 50 hands that we might wanna bluff.

Vilain will fold 20% of the time and call 80%. (No raise)

So we have
EV fold vilain = 100% * 20% * 1 = 0,20
EV losing call vilain = 50% * 80% * (1+0,33) = 0,532
EV winning call vilain = 50% * 80% * (-0,33) = -0,132
EV = 0,20 + 0,532 – 0,132 = 0,6

And what if we never bluff?
EV fold vilain = 50% * 20% * 1 = 0,10
EV losing call vilain = 50% * 80% * (1+0,33) = 0,532
EV total = 0,10 + 0,532 = 0,632

We'd better never bluff. That make sens since vilain defends more than the minimum defence frequency requires (75%). But he's defending a little more so I guess that the optimal strategy with that sizing would make us bluff a little bit..

That's why I think my Ev calculation (and thus my excel sheet) is wrong but I can't figure why...

What do you think about all this?

Thank you!

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