(9 handed, only relevant players mentioned)

UTG 2keffec
MP1 600
MP2 300
BTN (hero) 2k

UTG $15
MP Call
MP Call
BTN (hero)
Dealt AhKh
Raise $55

UTG call
MP call
MP call

Flop ($227)
10s3h2h
Chk,Chk,Chk

Hero $115

UTG raise $615

MP fold, MP fold

More information:


I have been 3betting UTG loosely as I know his ranges pretty well. $15 tends to be heavily weighted towards SC, limps with low pairs and raises 25-30 with 88+, ajs+ (IMO)

MP1 is has been calling bets and 3bets with hands like Q7os, MP2 is a fishy player just seemed to be bleeding. Going to a lot of flops/turns but hadn't seen many showdowns.

To me this is a clear raise for value and balance. I opted for $55 due to the amount of money in the pot, confident I had a skill, positional and card edge on all players I am happy to start building the pot but also not raising so big as to encourage folds. I want to keep in hands with RIO.

Flop Cbet: This is where I am unsure of my line. I think I have great equity against a lot of hands so I can bet for value but also build a pot I can steal on a lot of turns as it is quite hard for anyone to have a strong hand here so I think I get very few XR but there are plenty that will call fold; pairs from 44-99; weak 10 that currently beat me. Hands i get value from; 45, maybe an a4-a5 and most hh hands.

So here

Check to realise my equity but miss a ton of potential value. Though making my hand easier, safer to play being so deep. But I lose initiative, will often face a bet on on most turns which don't hit me often enough... any high enough bet and i think I should be folding on the turn as once they've bet I have little fold equity to try to take it away on rivers where I miss and they check. But on this note is checking better as the turns I hit they often bet, so I have a strong hand and position so can call, value river accordingly.

Or bet for the mentioned reasons above: raw value of the hand, fold equity on later streets, barrel J/Q turns which give me more actual and fold equity. Well also getting value from lower FDs when it hits. Depending on the caller pre, maybe worth barrelling against single caller on other turn cards too. Eg against Richard, not vs ray as he can get out of line and checking turn and bettiing smaller on river vs fishy player when I miss to fold out the weaker part of his flop continuing range that beats me (depending on cards).

As you can see I have some conflicting thoughts. I elected to bet as I thought there was so much value in doing so.

Flop XR: If I give him a range of 23, 22+, 45h, 56h, th7h+ I have 41% equity. Removing tt makes it 43%, removing all sets makes it 48%. Taking out 2p takes me to 58%.

He won his stack by taking a similar line with 2s3s on a As5s10 board. Large xr on flop, barrel brick turn, jam s river.

I think I have far too much equity vs his entire range to fold? but is getting it in just gambling? I don't like flatting as the pot would be $1447 on the turn with about 1350 behind so it is set up for a PSB (not sure whether intentional or not) which I don't want to call on brick turns therefor giving up so much equity vs a range I am potentially crushing on the turn or have good enough equity.

All the lines feel bleh to me which makes me think maybe checking the flop is the best line... but that is giving up $ IMO.

Thanks in advance for any feedback/comments.