Check/fold TP2K on the Flop? (NL 100)

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Check/fold TP2K on the Flop? (NL 100)

SB: Player1: 57.24
BB: Hero: 118.65
UTG: Player5: 100
HJ: Player6: 218.17
CO: Player8: 100
BN: Player10: 150.18
Preflop (1.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt K Q
Player5 raises to 3, Player6 folds, Player8 folds, Player1 calls 3, Player1 folds, Hero raises to 12, Player5 calls 10, Player1 folds
Flop (29.50) Q T 9 (2 Players)
Hero checks, Player5 bets 20.65, Hero calls 20.65
Turn (70.80) 5 (2 Players)
Hero checks, Player5 bets 66.35

Villain:

Villain oR in UTG 26% 

bet vs missed flop cbet 55%


Preflop I like the sqz a lot, Villain is oR way to much and seems to fold a bit to 3bets. 

After his call I guess he is holding somethink like this range:

QQ-99,AJs+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,AKo


I think we do not have a valuebet vs. this range but if he bets our hand does not look to good either. I assume that he is not betting w QJs/JTs and rarely with AJ/AK.

Given that I think we have 2 options:

1. Betting, because we get value from AJ/QJ/JT and have an very easy decision when he is raising with his sets (which he will do a lot). Given that line we are able to split his range and could play the turn much better.

2. Check/call and check/fold the turn. If we check/call we have to assume that he bets w AK/AJ which I do not do, because otherwise we have around 10% Equity vs his range:

and if he do not bets KQ/AQ which I think is nearly always the case we are down to 7%!!!

After this analysis I really do not like my check/call on the flop, and think that it is very -EV. As played I think it is an more easy fold now becasue we are so crushed by his nuts and I do not see him semibluffing at all after I check/called the flop!


What do you think?




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