bottom set vs turn shove

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

bottom set vs turn shove

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (9 Players) UTG: $25.38
MP: $24.40
UTG+1: $29.72
MP+1: $35.10
MP+2: $25.46
CO: $28.41
BN: $28.84
SB: $25.00 (Hero)
BB: $26.01
29/10 943
FCB 60/33
Agf 31/35
based on his play, I would say his rather a weaker/tight reg than a fish
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is SB with 8 8
4 folds, MP+2 calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, BB folds, MP+2 calls $1.00
Flop ($2.75) Q 8 A
Hero bets $1.74, MP+2 calls $1.74
Turn ($6.23) Q 8 A T
Hero bets $4.99, MP+2 raises to $22.47 and is all in, Hero
If we dont have his pfr/vpip I would say this is a clear call, he can value bet AQ/AT. But now, I am bit sceptical about that.. Mainly because I would expect all of his AQ to be raised pre based on his pfr. On the other hand TT,QQ and AA as well. So then the question if 29/10 FR player would limp/call KJo or limp/fold. Because having only 4combos of KJs which beat us (some of them might raise pre) makes me feel more happy about calling.
Another question is if a guy who folds too much vs cbets would call KJo OTF.. I would say no and thats the crucial point for me why I would call the turn raise.

Thoughts on my thought process?:)

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