bottom set + donking flop

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

bottom set + donking flop

200NL
Btn is a solid tag player over a short sample (tiny). There are no huds, but seems to be playing well.

btn $5
Hero BB 33 calls

Flop ($11) Qc Td 3c
Hero donks $7
btn raises to $21
Hero 3bets to $66
Btn calls.

Turn ($143) Qc Td 3c 7h
Hero all in $129
Villain ?

Btn should have a lot of hands that call or raise this donk bet on the flop. I also went with bigger sizing due to number sd / fd btn will have here. I think I can have a donking range on this flop, but EV of this board still favors btn range. Not sure how often I would actually be able to check raise here as I should only have 9 combos of QT and 3 combos of 33 for value, two combos of QTs as well, which is included in the QT count. Overall, I only have 12 value combos here, then quite a few bluffs, so I thought a donking line would perform better over a check raise line.

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