Bluff his bluff?

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Bluff his bluff?

HJ: $436.10
CO: $200
BN: $380.75 (Hero)
SB: $160.80
BB: $222.70
UTG: $241.35
The OR is a 19/17/7 taggy reg (CO open is 38% over 500 hand sample), and the BB is 25/19/4 who might be a reg but I'm not sure. My stats should look quite standard reggy to these guys (23/20/8).
Preflop ($3.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt Q T
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $5, Hero calls $5, SB folds, BB calls $3
Pre is kinda close- my default being 3bet- but small blind was a fish, BB hadn't shown to be crazy squeezy, and the OR had a 38% 4b so I called.
Flop ($16.00) 3 8 9 (3 Players)
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $12, BB raises to $32, CO folds, Hero calls $20
I think taking a shot at this flop is mandatory with the gutter/overs/bdfd, and then the BB check raises which is curious. I feel like this flop hits my range harder than his, as I figured his big blind peeling range is decently wide (albeit probably not J5s wide but suited 3 gaps prob).

His check raise could be a few things with top two and most sets being in there (99 maybe squeezes pre considering OR opens something like 38% from the CO-but that supposes villain has these stats too), but this seems like a decent spot for him to bluff considering I'm probably betting a bunch of hands and the OR is cf this flop often. I thought he could have some semi-bluff midpairs, straight draws or just whiffed overs (unlikely but possible). I called with the intention to turn something-spades are good, turning top pair or the nuts would work. It's possible he has decent top pairs K9s, J9s, Q9s, A9, T9 also.
Turn ($80.00) 3 8 9 6 (2 Players)
BB bets $35, Hero raises to $343.75, and is all in
The six isn't a great card because some of his semi bluffs have made 2p, and T7s is got there as well, but it gives me a double gutter which is good equity-wise. His turn sizing is kinda small, but set up an exactly pot sized shove on the river. This kinda suggested to me hes looking for river fold eq than anything else (ie inducing me to shove). I could call turn, I'm getting 3.3 to 1 (I need 20% eq which is almost direct odds vs a set,) and in retrospect I wonder if that's better because all shoving seems to accomplish is bluff him off his bluffs JT, QJ, QT, and some of his pair semi-bluffs (J8, A8) but I'm not sure he folds much else.

Thoughts?

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