Howdy!

The aim of this post is to expose my thinking to the community and perhaps invoke some kind of a critique of it and make adjustments.

Ok, let's get to it.

Most good players use sizing on flop, turn and river accounting for flop texture (the wetter the more), opponent tendencies etc. They mostly play 1/2 to 3/4 on the flop, turn and river and mostly progressively in later streets.

So let's say I open A5s on the button and get called by BB. Flop comes out K,5,2 rainbow, I bet 1/2 of the pot. I am right that that is standard?

Now, that's all well and cool, but it got me thinking, what about GTO?

I mean, the more we bet, the more bluff combinations we can include into our betting range to make villain's fold/call indifferent, am I right?

So let's assume the same thing. We open A5s OTB, get called by BB.
Okay, now my analysis goes like this.

Let's make up our value range OTF:

There is a 10% for us hitting a nut flash draw. That gives us almost always about +50% equity, so that is not pure semibluff, but a bet for value (most of the time).

Chances of hitting a pair (an ace or a 5) are about 27%. Some of the time 5 won't be a pair to value, but it will balance itself with high cards that we could bet safely assuming it's for value

There is about 4% to get a two-pair hand

There is about 1,5% to get trips

Other big hands like four of a kind, flashes on the flop etc. make up about 1%

So that is about 44% (let's say for the sake of simplicity 45%) that we bet safely assuming it's for value, and about 55% we bet as a bluff.

As we know in GTO play, even a ratio of 50/50 bluff and value combos can't be reached, because the whole thing is an asymptote, so 40/60 is unfeasable.

Simple conclusion is that we can't play GTO on the flop if we continue with 100% frequency. What happens when we continue with a lower frequency?

Let's say we checkback some of the time we hit a 5, sometimes when we have an ace for pot control, and sometimes with a high card even though we think we are ahead because we wanna realize our equity OTR. That is about let's say 12% of the time we are on the flop.

So now we bet 32% for value and 68% as a bluff 88% of the time total. Oops! That is even worse for GTO play! We can't possibly have a bet to make it indifferent!

So, how much air and weak draws do we need to remove from the betting range to make the whole thing look quite okay when we bet half the pot? We need 25% of bluffs for 75% of value...

The answer is that we need to remove 42% of our bluffs (ALMOST HALF!!!) and 12% of our value hands to be able to bet half the pot with GTO correct play. This all, of course is assuming villain either folds or calls his whole range, but that is too complex for me now to think about it xD

Now, is my analysis worth something? Or am I making some huge incorrect assumption about it all. Please feel free to respond, I just thought of it, and am in dire need to misapply it as soon as possible xD