Bet sizing theory question
Posted by Chael Sonnen
Posted by Chael Sonnen posted in High Stakes
Bet sizing theory question
For this question, I'll use a hand played by Haxton and Helmuth as an example.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZumJh0xaj14
Summary:
Ike opens K9o
Phil calls AJo in position
Flop: Tc Jd 3d
C-bet overbet and call by Phil
Turn: 7h
Bet and call again
River: 2h
Ike checks, Phil bets roughly 1/3 pot
Phil probably thinks ''my hand is worth about 16k in value''. What do you think about this reasoning? Is it good, as long as you also bet every busted draw this small?
So on the one hand, Phil has close to zero hands he calls twice with that now value bet the river. Pretty much AJ only. So since Phil has so many bluffs in his range (Q9, KQ, 89, AQ, diamonds, Ahigh floats), he should be betting big, so Ike gets bad pot odds, and cannot defend many bluff catchers.
On the other hand, there's the ''I only need to make him fold X and Y'' arguement.
If Ike thinks Phil has many busted draws and not many value hands, he can check-call the river with hands like AJ/AA/KK etc. and catch a lot of bluffs.
So if Phil were bluffing, he'd only want to make Ike fold better nothing.
And since Ike would fold air to any bet size, he doesn't need to bet much.
Phil Galfond talks about the latter arguement on the river on this hand history review:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2wecUQtirw
So what do you think is the correct bet sizing in spots like these? I personally think it should be a small bet with your whole range, but I'd like to hear feedback!
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