Hi guys,

I was watching Sean Lefort's 6-max concept videos. He went over building a range vs a min raise btn open. I also wanted to construct a range for Hero in the BB vs a 2.5x. I ran into an interesting question doing it. (This is my math. Feel free to correct me if you see an error or flaw with my theory)

BB vs Btn 2.5x
1.5/(1.5+4) = 27.27%

BB needs to essentially realize 27.27% equity to break even, greatly oversimplifying all the possible post flop scenarios. "Okay, if Btn is raising approx 50%, then we just take all our hands with 27.27% and call, and hands less than that we can use as bluff 3bets" No. Sean Lefort talks about that we'll only be able to realize around 60% of our equity on average. The reason why is because factors like positional disadvantage, reverse implied odds, villain putting pressure on our range, ect.. prevents us from realizing more equity. Versus a fish, you will be able to realize more equity because they will likely be putting in a lot more money bad.

So vs a 50% btn range, we essentially need to have around 45.45% pot equity since we are estimating that we will realize only around 60%

J9s(20th PCTL) vs top 50% -> R = 27.27/46.1 = 59%
K3s(50th PCTL) vs top 50% -> R = 27.27/45.41 = 60%
Q5s(35th PCTL) vs top 50% -> R = 27.27/42.67 = 63.90%
87s(35th PCTL) vs top 50% -> R = 27.27/39.59 = 68%
J8o(40th PCTL) vs top 50% -> R = 27.27/40.77 = 66%
T7o(50th PCTL) vs top 50% -> R = 27.27/36.79 = 74.12%
*Anything 60% or below is going to have approx 45% pot equity or more vs Villain's btn range.

This is what I've understood so far from Sean's video. What gets me is 87s seems like a fist pump call vs a 2.5x btn raise. I would call K3s too, but it would seem closer in my mind. When thinking about this from a math perspective, why is that? How do we account for through math, and not just adding 87s to a calling range based on "feel"?

My theory: I am very interested to hear all of you guy's thoughts and opinions on this matter. My guess is maybe a hand like 87s realizes more equity essentially than a hand like K3s, so maybe you need to estimate that you'll win around 70% equity with it vs 60%? I think you essentially realize equity, when you bluff raise a gutshot+2 overcards, or c/r a gutshot+fd, barrel turn, and he folds. With K3s, yes you can play some draws aggressively, but for the most part your probably doing more c/c'ing post flop either with Kx, 3x, or a fd, and that makes your opponent more able to realize their equity. Ex: Your opponent bets bottom pair. You c/c with Kx. They check back turn and bink river. Granted you are c/c'ing 87s too with a pair, but you probably are on average doing more c/r'ing with the hand and denying your opponent their equity.