AQo thread 10NL

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

AQo thread 10NL

BN: $5.80
SB: $17.15
BB: $4.79
UTG: $10.60
HJ: $4
CO: $10 (Hero)
UTG unknown
Preflop ($0.15) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt Q A
UTG raises to $0.35, HJ folds, Hero calls $0.35, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds
Flop ($0.85) 8 7 Q (2 Players)
UTG bets $0.63, Hero calls $0.63
Turn ($2.11) 8 (2 Players)
UTG bets $1.58, Hero calls $1.58
River ($5.27) 3 (2 Players)
UTG bets $8.04, Hero calls $7.44
His perceived range QQ+; 77 ; 8x ; busted draws.

I have 37% pot odds.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

24 games 0.000 secs 4,800 games/sec

Board: 7c 8c Qd 8d 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.667% 66.67% 00.00% 16 0.00 { QQ+, 77, A8s, JTs, T9s, 98s }
Hand 1: 33.333% 33.33% 00.00% 8 0.00 { AhQc }


I have just a little bit less equity than pot odds against a nutted hand range ( I gave him just 2 busted draws ).

I'm not sure if KK or AA plays this way, because my calling range on the turn seems like [Qx, 8x, busted draws]. There are just 2 Qx (KQ-AQ) I call down him with and a whole bunch combinations of busted draws. Remaining 8x or stronger combinations are beat his KK-AA. So I more inclined He's just bluffing here against most of Qx and busted draw combinations.

9 Comments

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Getready2rokk 11 years, 2 months ago

River is really interesting when he just jams it.
I think the value range you gave him is verry reasonably, ill prob include 78s but thats only 2 combos.
I agree its a verry polarizing betsize and he prob bets small w his AQ and small with other stuff or not bet at all w QJ etc. Given you dont have the Ac, this might put some Axcc in his range. So i dont mind you looking him up here, certainly not happy and its prob a really close spot.

We prob got 78s,89s,77,QQ in our range we are more comfortable calling with, then we indeed got some busted draws like 9Ts,TJcc,Qxcc and then AQ/KQs. So thats 10 combos we are happy with, at least 8 we just have to fold (busted draws) and 12 AQ combos, 2 Qxcc combos. So if we only call our nutted hands (10 combos) and fold the rest (22 combos) we are folding around 66% of the time in this spot. His bet needs to work 60% of the time. 
So from a GTO perspective we prob need to call w some AQ combos here.
(You can work this out better by looking more closely to your flop turn calling ranges.)

Sean Fri 11 years, 2 months ago

This is really player dependent, I think. Where I play 10nl, there are two types of players who do this - the ones that want to be called and the ones that don't. That's another way of saying his range is polarized, for practical purposes. But I find that players are more polarized than their ranges are. In other words, some guys only overbet when they don't want to get looked up, and some guys only overbet when they do, figuring that if you're calling, you're calling. So the player pool is more polarized than the players are. I haven't run across many guys who actually balance, though I imagine they do exist. I think you have just enough equity to find out which kind of guy this is, especially if you think you'll be playing against him a lot. 

Amit Patel 11 years, 2 months ago

I think I would fold. Your perceived range is decent Qx and some 8x and some busted draws. He can bet less than pot to fold out busted draws, so he has to be trying to get you to fold out the top of your range, which I doubt most people at 10NL are trying to do. Would be interested to know what he played like this.

darren2607 11 years, 2 months ago

I think you're in danger of leveling yourself in this spot at these stakes. I don't think you can rule out him opening with broadways that missed and just triple barreling to get a fold. Add some combos of that in to the range and it will take you above your 36%. I would make a crying call here

Sean Fri 11 years, 2 months ago

Agreed, as mentioned. Some nights, tho, this leads to an ugly graph, when guys always turn up with 84o. Weak players usually have weak starting ranges, but many of them only 3 barrel with strong relative strength hands that just fell into their laps, like 84o or something. 

SPrince 11 years, 2 months ago

Against the range you gave him it`s close to neutral EV, about $-1, so you need to alter his range a bit to make it profitable.Only thing i`m not sure is how often are players at 10NL overbet bluffing these types of spots.

whysoeasy 11 years, 2 months ago

Like most said I would call. Also, I want to add the fact that the board is extremely drawy and when every thing miss river villain can have some hands that beat us check thinking we will bet our Q and hoping we bluff with our busteddraws. It's really common at 25NL where many reg are really unbalance and check there good hands for let us bluff and bet bluff with their missed draws on that kind of spot.

It's a very common leak and you can play perfectly vs these kind of players so it's something to be aware of and take notes about.

Sean Fri 11 years, 2 months ago

Right, and to know, you have to call in this spot. Which sucks, but knowing will probably make more money in the long run. 


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