AKss flopped FD+overs HU against deep stack facing starvation and sick from food poisoning

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AKss flopped FD+overs HU against deep stack facing starvation and sick from food poisoning

I'm at 150bb $300 stack in a 1/2 game at a casino game that's loose passive. I have AKss in the SB with 4 limpers out front including the villain on the button with glasses dressed well and has an iphone who bought in for about 600. I saw this deepstack CR the turn against a 300 stack who called with an overpair TT and won the pot, he also called 100 on the turn/river on a J high board and lost the pot to AJ while he was ip.
I raise to 21 and get the CO and button to call.
flop pot:65 Js8s3d
I cbet 75 and the CO folds the deepstack villain calls pretty quickly and looks down at his iphone like he doesn't care.
turn pot: 215 Js8s3d4h
Hero??? I think it's pretty clear the villain has some Jx hand and might not fold the turn since earlier he wasn't folding to 100 bets. I just don't know if I am lighting money on fire if I shove the turn. I think a CR on the flop might be a better line against a more advanced player who is capable of folding, but decent players don't fold even at 2/5 to CRs on Q high boards.

I tank and check, villain bets out for 125 and I fold he shows. I feel like villain is probably not folding a jack maybe even if I shoved since he bought in deep. Online if I shoved this draw I think I would be called quickly by AJ maybe KJ by some players.

4 Comments

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Disharmonist 9 years, 3 months ago

He can fold anything worse than a J, a mediocre J like JT, or even better if you would play QQ++ like this. He also has to fold his T9 and low Fds which sounds weird because you dominate them but on the other hand, you hardly can call with A high.

unknown20 9 years, 3 months ago

would you shove AI on the flop where you have more equity? I'm beginning to wonder if I should just bet 1/3-1/2 pot though that has less fold equity. I'm usually not shoving and rather valuebetting smaller to get people to call.
in a different game I was 1500 deep in a 2/5 game and I CRed this on a Qssxx board to about 300 and villain still CALLED, turn QssxxQs and I shove AI and villain folds. So I guess he is folding Qx there and only calling fullhouses which he could very well have live any Qx 2 pairhand there that boated up. I'm just getting killed with this combo draw hand maybe because I need to go AI.
I'm not sure this villain was calling 100 bets with a mediocre Jx hand and he was checkraising AI against a 300 stack and losing to TT and then buying in for 300 more. but it's kind of terrible to not realize my equity, but I might have less than 50% on the flop against a range of J8-JA and 88,33 sets.

unknown20 9 years, 3 months ago

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

85,140 games 0.004 secs 21,285,000 games/sec

Board: Js 8s 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 49.281% 49.28% 00.00% 41958 0.00 { AsKs }
Hand 1: 50.719% 50.72% 00.00% 43182 0.00 { TT, AJs, KJs, QJs, J2s+, AJo, KJo, QJo, J8o+ }

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