AA 360bb pot - would you change anything?
Posted by sgperfect
Posted by
sgperfect
posted in
Mid Stakes
AA 360bb pot - would you change anything?
BN: $99
SB: $26.43
BB: $183.04 (Hero)
UTG: $111.42
HJ: $270.57
CO: $160.06
SB: $26.43
BB: $183.04 (Hero)
UTG: $111.42
HJ: $270.57
CO: $160.06
Preflop
($1.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
A
A
UTG folds, HJ raises to $3, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, Hero raises to $10, HJ calls $7
UTG folds, HJ raises to $3, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, Hero raises to $10, HJ calls $7
Villain is playing 25/18 over 360 hands and I don't any other reads unfortunately.
Other stats 24% MP open/63%fold to 3bet/ 42% fold to flop cbet
Other stats 24% MP open/63%fold to 3bet/ 42% fold to flop cbet
Flop
($21.50)
3
Q
8
(2 Players)
Hero bets $12.53,
HJ calls $12.53
Turn
($46.56)
3
Q
8
7
(2 Players)
Hero bets $31.32,
HJ calls $31.32
River
($109.20)
3
Q
8
7
8
(2 Players)
Hero bets $129.19, and is all in,
HJ calls $129.19
My range for getting to the river QQ+, 87s, 9h8h, JTs, T9s, AK with a heart, Some AK w/o a heart.
I expect villain to flat QQ most of the time preflop, so I think his range is QQ, AQ,KQ,QJs, JThh, T9s, 98hh, 88, 87s, 33
Therefore he has
TP - 60%
3 of a kind+ - 28% ( villain 4bet QQ he has 22% here)
High card - 12%
I'm relatively polarized with
Overpair - 36%
3oak+ - 16%
high cards - 48%
I no longer like my shove but I think we have to bet here given these ranges so I'm thinking $80 would be fine and fold to a shove? This would be an exploitable fold but a good one?
Can anyone assess my ranges and reasoning and also any thoughts on the best sizing for earlier streets if you think they should be bigger to set up a smaller river SPR.
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