50NL - 99 in 3bet pot facing flop cr, turn check, and river ship
Posted by Mushmellow
Posted by Mushmellow posted in Low Stakes
50NL - 99 in 3bet pot facing flop cr, turn check, and river ship
SB: Paprika: $59.76
BB: Mushmellow: $103.67
BB: Mushmellow: $103.67
Villain opening 80% on the button. Calling 2 out of 3 of my 3bets so far. From the big blind, he is folding 43%, calling 4% and 3betting himself 54%. He is a thinking player but I kept playing him because I feel like no matter how good he is it's hard to play a 54% 3bet profitably.
Preflop
($0.75)
(2 Players)
Mushmellow was dealt
9
9
Paprika raises to $1.25, Mushmellow raises to $5, Paprika calls $4
Paprika raises to $1.25, Mushmellow raises to $5, Paprika calls $4
I make it $5.50 to go.
Flop
($11.00)
7
3
4
(2 Players)
Mushmellow bets $7,
Paprika raises to $18,
Mushmellow calls $11
On the flop, in the past three 3bet flops he hasn't folded to any of my cbets. In a past 3bet pot, I check raised him all in on the turn and he ended up folding so I think he is capable of floating me in 3bet pots but I'm not sure yet.
With an SPR of 5, I don't really like reshipping the 99 in this spot because I feel like I'm only getting called by better. He might fold his FDs and draws and all his air. I opt to call planning to call down on the turn. Villain is capable of trying to take me off this low texture which doesn't hit my tight 3bet range (I was playing a F: 65%, C: 24%, and 3bet: 11% from the big blind against villain) so I feel like he might shove turn with his air and draws. He also set up stacks nicely for a turn shove so it's big enough for him to have enough fold equity.
With an SPR of 5, I don't really like reshipping the 99 in this spot because I feel like I'm only getting called by better. He might fold his FDs and draws and all his air. I opt to call planning to call down on the turn. Villain is capable of trying to take me off this low texture which doesn't hit my tight 3bet range (I was playing a F: 65%, C: 24%, and 3bet: 11% from the big blind against villain) so I feel like he might shove turn with his air and draws. He also set up stacks nicely for a turn shove so it's big enough for him to have enough fold equity.
Turn
($47.00)
7
3
4
J
(2 Players)
Mushmellow checks,
Paprika checks
I check to him hoping he ships the rest in but he actually ends up checking. On this wet texture, I feel like if he had sets, two pairs, top pair overpair type hands he would be jamming since he doesn't want any of the flush draws to complete. Even his flush draws that he has I also think he's shipping those. So now I feel like he just gives up on the hand.
River
($47.00)
7
3
4
J
2
(2 Players)
Mushmellow checks,
Paprika raises to $36.26, and is all in
I don't think there is value in betting the river myself so I plan on check calling. Villain jams. Flush draw completes but I don't think he has many flush draws because I feel like they would have shipped turn. Only type of hands I can see him having is a flop bluff which turned top pair and decided for some reason to check back the turn. I think this is an easy call vs. villain. What do you guys think?
Call or fold?
Thanks! :)
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