3bpt SBvsBTN, thin river value bet?
Posted by MatoStar
Posted by MatoStar posted in Low Stakes
3bpt SBvsBTN, thin river value bet?
BB: $5.17
UTG: $4.07
CO: $6.64
BN: $9.62
Rake is $0.58
Hey everyone,
Just wondering about the river.
Flop: I do cbet my whole range with that sizing - the board is pretty favorable for our range..
TURN: I was thinking about check/calling/jamming here, but I would prefer to have a King which does not have 3 streets of value KJs,KTs. We could maybe x/shove AA as well as some nut FDs to trap his worse ones. I also feel like, I have many draws here which I want to bet so I decided to play just intuitively and straightforward - going for 3 streets.
RIVER: this card is kinda tricky, because most of his draws are those which consist from XhXh. On the other hand he still has some XsXs combos but most of them are A-highs which I doubt that he would turn into a bluff with some normal frequency. Therefore check/calling seems pretty weak to me - people do not value bet thin enough (often KQ would be just check back) as well as they do not bluff enough. So I should decide whether or not I want to x/f or bet for value. Tbh we are playing at nl5, I do not know this guy, but I am pretty sure that these players are just finding reasons why they should call.. soo I think it might be either slightly -EV if he is a reg who is capable of folding anything except of Kx.. or super +EV when someone starts to call pocket pairs against us.. to conclude, I think in general we should have more than 0EV by just shoving this river.
Btw what type of hands are we checking/calling on the turn? All pocket pairs, weaker Kx, AQ and AJ (which do not block his draws) and maybe some nut FDs+KK?)
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