3bet shove OTR as a bluff at micros?!
Posted by MatoStar
Posted by MatoStar posted in Low Stakes
3bet shove OTR as a bluff at micros?!
Hey guys,
I feel like in this hand that I have a decent combo to 3bet bluff given the "capped range" which villain could have in some scenarios.
First of all he checked back the flop - so we can induce some % of his K8,77 and 88. He only called the turn bet, so that the frequency with he has those mentioned combos is also much lower. I would say most of the time he has 8x, weaker King, or a pocket pair. Flush draws are also possible, but not as often since I expect that he would bet them at least half of a time on the flop and we do block some of them as well.
Getting to the river I see a ton of his 8x hands which are now trips, some flushes are possible as well. I decided to bet smaller for the following reasons:
1. I do not think that he has that many bluffs in his range which he would bet once I check this river.
2. I still see weaker Kx or pairs from which I might get some value.
3. Decided to use smaller sizing, because the value bet is pretty close though and also wanted to induce raises from 8x
4. However, I am not 100% sure that he is raising with 8x on the river, even if I used a smaller sizing.
5. I really can not see that many nutted hands in his range given his line + the fact that I do have a K blocker + a flush blocker.
Okay, he could have some Ax flush draws but still not all the time since some might 3bet preflop or just bet the flop/ raise the turn and sometimes even fold to shove on the river. Kh is on the board. QhXh are possible hands which he might be calling on the river to a shove. Lower flushes are much closer and I can imagine folding out these lower flushes.
Overall, I am not sure how much fold equity do I have, but based on the assumption that he is value raising 8x on the river and not slowplaying with frequency his flush draws, twopairs and sets...
Btw he is a reg.
Here is the hand: https://my.pokercraft.com/embeded/hhimg/R17ZKQS8NMGGC8K90E9
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