Hero UTG ($covers) 22 opens $15
UTG+1 ($450) 3bets to $40
7 folds,
Hero calls $25 more.

Flop ($84) J72dd
Hero donk leads $40
UTG1 calls.

Turn ($164) J72dd2x
check x 2

River ($164) Jd-7x-2d-2x-Jx
Hero checks

Villain is a tight tag player. His 3 bet size is pretty normal for him, I expect a typical range of TT+ AQs+ for him, with the bottom of the 3 bet range being a mix, especially vs an UTG open. My $15 open is pretty standard on this table as most pots where 3 way to HU. Preflop I could see folding vs a 3 bet, being 90bb effective, but vs a narrow range I think i can get paid off enough of the time when I do flop a set.

I figured if villain had AA-QQ he might raise my donk lead and put me on a hand like KJs or AJs here setting up a turn shove. When he checked back turn, I was thinking maybe TT, lower frequency of QQ-AA, but still has over pairs in his range. Then some AKs / AQs hands that peeled. On the river I figured he would still bet for thin value with TT-AA, in which case I would likely just ship, hoping for a hero call. I don't think he has many Jx in his range here though, so I guess best play would of been bet bet bet or check call each street and maybe donk lead or xr river.

Whats are your thoughts on this hand?