[20NL] 3barrel bluff overbet versus a regular

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[20NL] 3barrel bluff overbet versus a regular

Blinds: $0.10/$0.20 (5 Players) CO: $20.92 (Hero)
BN: $25.61
SB: $16.45
BB: $20.00
UTG: $32.59
Hi guys, villain is a regular, pretty strange flat given that bb isn't fishy and not that much of a nit.
Preflop ($0.30) Hero is CO with Q T
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.60, BN calls $0.60, 2 folds
Flop ($1.50) 7 J 8
Hero bets $1.00, BN calls $1.00
pretty standard cbet I guess, right? Can we consider checking 100% against a probably pocket pair oriented range 66-TT with a bunch of Jx and draws here?
Turn ($3.50) 7 J 8 4
Hero bets $4.30, BN calls $4.30
OTT I could've given up, but I think he raises most of his sets OTF. I block QJ,JT,T9 so decided to keep barreling with my gutshot, overbetting with my Qc blocker.
River ($12.10) 7 J 8 4 K
Hero bets $15.02 and is all in, BN calls $15.02
OTR I think having the Qc doesnt matter as we block QKcc and only QTcc as a float. With this sizing he needs to fold 56% of the time for me to be +EV, and I think this might be the case (my assumptions lead me to think he will call about 31% of the time). I put his river range OTR down below:
Final Pot BN wins $39.72
Rake is $2.42

His river range IMO (48 combos) :

And his calling range (31% of the combos he gets to the river with):

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