200z AKs deep with bad run out vs a good reg line check
Posted by ssg
Posted by ssg posted in Mid Stakes
200z AKs deep with bad run out vs a good reg line check
SB: $1233.09
BB: $100
UTG: $208
HJ: $415.09
CO: $404.15
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $4.80, SB raises to $17, BB folds, Hero raises to $45.88, SB calls $28.88
villain is a decent reg who recently moved up from 100z and has been adapting very well.
He is running 27/22 with 8.6% 3bet. His 3bet from SB is 10% while vs btn open is 12.4%, not that high at the moment probably due that I only have 3.5k hands on him, but I definitely felt has SB 3b vs btn open has increased quite significantly.
He like to call lot of flops and turn Oop, but folding majority of rivers. calls 41/63/17
Hero's image is pretty laggish, likes to 3b/hood a lot both OOP and IP, I'd my 4bet is that high, around 10-10.5%. and my barrelling stats is on the lower side but pretty even, like 46/45/45
Pre I think either flat or 4bet is fine. maybe 4bet with AKo and flat AKs would be better, but villain only folds to 45%ish of 4bet so I think it should be 4bet for value and let him flat SC or Suited broadway which we do well against. But probably should have made the 4bet a bit larger, like 48-54ish.
Flop looks pretty action heavy and I was sure he would definitely peel at least once with most of his range, stuff like KJ/KQ/98s/JTs,QTs,78s,QJs,AJ/AQ,T9s etc. sizing wise could for a bit bigger to make this a two street game but that isn't necessary.
Turn is really good for his range but it also gives us more outs so I decided to check back. I'm very curiously of how should we precede on this turn with
1:AA
2:AKo/AKs but not spade
3:KK
and river just sucks and good for him if he is bluffing with AQ.
thoughts on the hands?
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