100NL: yet another TP spot in 3b pot

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100NL: yet another TP spot in 3b pot

BB: $130.79
HJ: $100
CO: $100
BN: $199 (Hero)
SB: $56
villain is a reg, 23/18 w/ 10% overall 3b. 3bets BB vs BU 19% and 23% vs hero. cbets oop in 3b pot 76% flop, 59% turn and 46% river.
Preflop ($1.50) (5 Players)
Hero was dealt A J
HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $2, SB folds, BB raises to $5, Hero calls $4
Flop ($12.50) 9 A 4 (2 Players)
BB bets $10, Hero calls $10
Turn ($32.50) Q (2 Players)
BB bets $23, Hero calls $23
River ($78.50) T (2 Players)
BB bets $57, Hero calls $57

I think that I did a poor job of handreading OTT, there are actually quite a few hands that beat me and not too many draws. I think there are not too many club draws in his range. KJ and KT is possible but I'm not sure if he would barrel those. I feel like my range looks like Ax, 9x, midpairs and FDs. I'm not really sure if it would make sense for him to make me want to fold less than Ax since those are by far the most likely holdings in my range.

On the other hand, I count AA, QQ, 99, AQ, A4, AK - 27 combos of value hands. Discounting the probability of A4 to 33% would still give villain 23 combos of value. Pure diamond draws are somewhat hard for villain on this texture, I'd say he could be having KJ, KT, JT, 87 and 76. 

OTR I have no freaking idea what I was thinking, probably desperately hoping that villain would bluff missed diamonds. I believe I talked myself into this by rationalizing that he would have bet his top tier hands bigger so that he could get it in by the river.

Would I play this over, then I'd fold turn and if I get to the river I'd fold river. Thoughts?


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