Been sitting with villain for about 1.5 hours, he seems competent. Hasn't shown down anything particularly noteworthy, he's up about 1 buy-in in that span. I start the hand in the cutoff with ~$240, villain is on the button and covers.

I get K J, 2 limpers, I raise to $12, villain calls, limpers fold.

Guy is competent enough that he won't have called with totally unconnected garbage, or a monster like QQ, KK, AA or AK.

Flop ($31-3):

9 4 6

I continue for $15 thinking that he'll have missed that flop more often than not, and I'll win the pot. Villain thinks for a few seconds and calls. Because it's a relatively wet board and he just called, I think we can exclude sets and over pairs from villain's range here, at least most of the time. I also think he'd raise A9, but that's probably closer. I think he'd call with 35, 57, 78, 33, 55, 77, 88, A4, A6, Spades, and maybe float with just two over cards, though I think that's less likely. Obviously I think the OESD is less likely to have been called pre, but if he called pre flop with it, he'll definitely call (or raise) now that he's hit the flop.

Turn ($61-5):

9 4 6 A

Given the range that I put villain on above, I think the only way this hits his range is if he had A9, A4, A6, or floated me with A high. I haven't seen anything in the 90 minutes or so that I've been playing with him to indicate he would do that, but its possible. Seems like this will hit my range a lot more than his (I'm more likely to cbet A high than he is to call with it, I think). I also think that a bet here will fold out all the pocket pairs from his range above. So I decide to bet $25, and villain snap calls.

Because my line is now pretty strong-looking, I'd really expect him to have raised sets or two-pair hands looking to get it in before another spade hits. If he decided to flat the flop with an overpair like TT, JJ, or QQ, which I think is unlikely, I could also see him calling here, hoping to check behind on the river. Of course he would still be calling with his spade draws, or OESDs.

River ($111-5)

9 4 6 A 10

I'm interested in what people think I should do here. I decided to check, basically giving up after being called on both flop and turn. If he floated and turned an A, he'll never fold, if he slow played a set he'll probably jam, if he backed into a weird two pair (9T or AT) he'll probably jam. I have a hard time imagining him calling 2 streets with a worse made hand, so while he'd fold most of his non-A one pair hands, I don't think he can make it to this river with them anyway.

Villain takes about 15 seconds to think and bets $50.

Obviously my first instinct is "Oh, ****, guess I lose". But I started trying to figure out which hands in his range would call flop and turn, AND then feel comfortable betting river. I guess he'd do it with a set, but he's competent enough (I think) to have raised a set on flop or turn. Same feeling for A9. If he somehow made it to the river with 55, 77, or 88, I think he'd check behind to get a showdown. He might've rivered a set of tens, but I can't see him calling turn with that. And I guess he could've backed into AT, which would make sense, but require him to have floated the flop with basically nothing. And of course most of the draws he could've called flop and turn with have missed (except 78). Because I have the K, I have to be beating all his missed spades. And I only need to be right 1 time of 3 to be profitable.

I mean, I guess he could've somehow backdoored a flush, but I have a had time figuring out how he gets past flop with those hands (unless his OESD is suited in clubs). I guess if he decided to flat pre and flop with AA, he'd now bet for value, but that seems improbable. It seems insane, but I can't figure out a value hand that takes this line. Can I close my eyes and call here?