Somehow RIO just crashed for me so this is my 2nd attempt to write this. I played this hand in the sunday brawl 3 weeks ago (the last one w/ $ 250buyin) on ftp, iirc I was just moved to this table so we dont have any specific reads on villain in this hand. My first instinct was to insta-fold as balanced overbet ranges are rare in tournaments. Dont get me wrong, Im not sure you can and/or should balance this exact spot or if you should just bet exploitatively because you get paid of anyways if hero in this hand has something. In my experience though ppl seem to be having the goods more often than not when they overbet in tournaments. Might just be selection bias or simply variance, but that´s what I see often.

Admittedly, I did have a hard time coming up with a value overbet range for him here in game. I initially gave him: 22, 33, 44, TT, QQ, KK, AA, T2, T3, T4, QT, Q4, Q3, 65, 42, 43.

Given that we were 22.5BB effective here my best guess was that he would shove all smaller pairs preflop most of the time and raise the bigger ones. That in turn would eliminate basically all set combos from his range. Even if we give him some set combos he would likely put more money in the pot with them either on the flop or the turn imo for value and protection.

We block the 4, which is kind of relevant for eliminating set and two pair combos. Also, I dont see him just randomly overbet shoving all of his two pair combos either. In my mind hands like T2, T3, T4 would just be better off value betting smaller. Or in his mind the flush draw missed and he thought therefore I would call any bet with whatever value hand I had. I can see him overbet shoving the QT combos, but other than that I dont know. He also might raise some of those pf.

65o is a possibility, but it´s kind of hard to get to the river with just 65o unless he was stubborn or planning on shoving many rivers. He couldnt have a specific read on me either as we didnt play a hand prior to this one. 6s5s surely would be in his range even though I think he would have put more money in the pot earlier in the hand at least half the time he shows up with that hand as it just has so much equity against basically anything.

That left me with him not having that many value combos here, but given that the obvious flush draw missed he also couldnt just shove that many bluff combos either, could he? As I said I was definitely torn here between calling and folding. I kept coming back to the fact that I hadnt seen that many overbet bluffs shown down (maybe because they always worked against me or while I was at the table). If he was somewhat concerned about balance he would have to realize that his value range consisted of not that many combos which wouldnt allow him to add that many bluffs to his river range here.

I´d really like some thoughts on this hand. Thanks in advance.